Epic Research: Nifty Outlook by Epic Research

Nifty rebounded from oversold levels on the last trading day of the week but still witnessed the worst decline in the last two months. This is fifth consecutive week for Nifty to post a decline and closing below 50 days SMA.

We have seen a massive outflow from FII in the July month with money exiting the market at the tune of almost 17K Crore. This is the largest outflow we have seen since October 2018. This is also the third straight month we have witnessed FII's been taking the money out from the market.

The FPI fiasco in the budget has actually put a lot of damage to market internals. This is at the time when we are seeing Tepid earnings from the Nifty 50 companies. Though recent news of PMO intervening and having talks with FinMin and other officials from CBDT, revenue and other departments may bring some relief to the market sentiments.

The global cues were flat earlier this week but turned down heavily on traders with the Fed's rate cut. The Global markets such as Dow, SP500, Hang Seng tumbled and selling was seen.

Technically market is in oversold levels and we haven't seen that very often in the last few years. The sharp decline witnessed in the last five weeks have further dented the Small-cap and midcap space and many stocks have fallen now almost 40 - 70% in the last few weeks.

The market is now awaiting the RBI meet which is scheduled next week. There have been three rate cuts in 2019 and the market is expecting another rate cut of 25 BPS; especially after the downside risk in earnings we have seen and lower monsoon.

The market in short term to medium term may witness some bounceback given its in oversold zone and any bounceback can further be extended to 11200 - 11300; if its sustains the 10900 marks. It would be tough for the market to breach 11300 - 11350 area. hence consolidation is also around the corner. Short-sellers should remain cautious as current levels favour the bulls.

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