
Nifty ended down for a fourth consecutive week and it's a first
since the start of 2019. The selling
pressure intensified due to
multiple domestic factors and negative global cues. Technically RSI has
almost touched the oversold level of 30 this week indicating the sell
off was too deep. Nifty also was able to retain the support area which
is placed at the levels of 11200.
RSI has been showing divergence for a while and this correction seems to
have been due. Now we are at a very important support zone which is
coupled with 200 days SMA placed at 11135. The cool off in prices was
also witnessed in the second half of the week with the market recovering
to close above the previous two day's close.
Fundamental arent supporting at this point of time. While earnings were
in much better shape in the previous quarter; this quarter has seen
numbers much lower and with a recent dismal performance from Auto, FMCG
we believe the sentiments may remain negative. The HUL has seen growth
slowing to almost 7 quarters low. The auto companies are already in a
bad shape and we believe this may continue for this quarter as well
until demand picks up in its season. The topline for many companies have
not been good and only financials are able to report better number but
with increased provisioning and reduced NIMs FII /FPI has been
negative since the Budget and we have seen them pulling out 12K Cr till
this date. All eyes will now be on coming RBI meet in August.
Global cues have also been negative in terms of earnings as most
companies who have reported till date saw a decline in earnings and
further reducing EPS making it a second straight quarterly drop.
We believe this is a time for caution rather than being aggressive and
going out with a shopping bag. It is now only select few stocks that
need to be handpicked at this point of time. While Index may consolidate
between 11200 - 11450 in the short term.
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